Bitcoin’s valuation at $ 60 000 by 31 dec. 2023 ?
- The collapse of big players threatening the future of Bitcoin
- Bitcoin as a ‘standard’ driving the valuation of all other cryptocurrencies
- A bullish trend since the beginning of the year
- The collapse of big players threatening the future of Bitcoin
Following the year 2021 during which crypto valuations have reached stratospheric levels, 2022 has been marked by the opposite trend, the bitcoin value recording a sharp decrease of around 70% and affecting valuations of the whole cryptocurrencies ecosystem. In that context, cryptos based on algorithmic calculation have been particularly hit by the storm, some like TerraUSD erasing 90% of their value and affecting thousands of holders who incurred huge losses. The slump in crypto has also affected some of the biggest exchanges. FTX, the second biggest worldwide cryptocurrency platform went bankrupt due to a lack of adequate liquidity management process and some excessive risk taking through its bets with its Alameda subsidiary, burning the cash deposits of FTX customers. The crash of some major names in the industry has also unleashed the bankruptcy of numerous crypto firms partnering with the biggest exchanges, especially crypto banks providing liquidity and support for the trading of crypto-based derivatives. After such an earthquake devastating the whole ecosystem, many expected and even declared the end of cryptos and the biggest among them, Bitcoin. - Bitcoin as a ‘standard’ driving the valuation of all other cryptocurrencies
Five times it has been said that the Bitcoin would disappear, five times it has rebounded from the lowest following a dramatic collapse of its price. Based on the historic trend dating back to 2009, the year which saw the birth of Bitcoin, it is currently admitted that a 2 years period is a standard time before the Bitcoin could regain the lost valuation from its previous peak. The current trend suggests we are again in the same type of paradigm for the year 2023. Compare to a low point of around $15000-$16000 at the end of 2022, Bitcoin has already recoup the equivalent to reach a $30000 valuation; it is near half the value of its peak at nearly $68000 recorded on sept 2021. Just at the beginning of the year, many analysts of the crypto markets were still proclaiming it was time to sell !!!…Considering cryptos valuations, it is very hard to predict future prices. However, year after year, Bitcoin has consolidated its position as a standard like Gold is considered now in the field of precious metals. Many opponents to the Bitcoin argue that it is much more secured to invest in physical Gold than in Bitcoin; part of the success of Bitcoin lies indeed on the so-called ‘debasement’ of traditional currencies. In case of a whole collapse of the current financial system, it could appear safer to be invested in ‘hard’ precious metal. Nevertheless, in case of a collapse of the whole financial system, it is probable that only the decentralized financial assets will remain unaffected from a potential collapse. Again, after review of the historic yearly valuations, it seems that assumption is only true when the Bitcoin’s valuation is decorrelated from those of major equities and bonds markets. - A bullish trend since the beginning of the year
Since the end of 2022, Bitcoin has recorded a major rebound. To be precise, the valuation of Bitcoin was exactly $16 604 on 31st Dec 2022. at the moment the following lines are written, it quotes nearly $30 000, almost double the price a little more than 3 months ago. The performance is really impressive, especially in the context following the collapse of some major platforms in the crypto world. Beyond this impressive achievement, different scenarios could occur in a near future. A first one encompass the performance of the last 3 months and could see the Bitcoin reach a valuation range of $45 000 – $60 000 before September 2023. On the contrary, there is always a possible adverse scenario in which a downward trend of Bitcoin occurs due to some unpredictable events. Once again, there is no current expectation of such events happening in a near future because major adverse events already materialized in 2022. Consequently, the market is probably now fully cleaned of any potential collapse and the risk of a downward trend occurring in the next few months appears very low. Moreover, besides the first two scenarios, there is a third and very optimistic one. Following an identical trend as for the first 3 months of the year 2023, it is even possible that the Bitcoin could reach $ 100 000 by the end of the year. In the next following months, it will be easy to see if the upward trend shows more the way towards the 45K-60K valuation rather than to the one of 100K…
